Do not understand Greece? That is all right, your in with a great deal of company, including people who really ought to know better. But what it the papers today was a giant clusicous remark by a negotiator for the Germans: basically he said "Why do not you just leave?"
And that remark gave everyone who thought they had a clue, a real point to start at the end and work backwards. It was just the smart people who knew what was going on, it was the people who listened very closely, which is a larger number than before. You just have to know what the signs are, and use something called "Game Theory".
Game theory was invented by Morgenstern and John von Neumann, with von Neumann one of the finest mathematicians in the 20th century. the game that they started was littered with the best of minds in the field, many of them great mathematicians themselves. and three of the brightest are Gödel, Turing, and Nash. what the three of them did was essentially invent the idea of informational space, and, though separately, introduced the idea that there was something like a current running through this. Later on engineers realized that it was not just theoretical, it was also practical.
And one of the greatest ideas came from Nash, And that was, do not go forward, go backwards. This way you will know what each participant once with their time, and how best to conserve it. In this way you could show by game theory what they would do, and what they would do by min maxing their position, whatever their opponents did.
This was not just theoretical, Nash showed it by using poker as an example, but it is mean use is with real people and the choices that they make. Once you look backwards, you will see that the logical choices, if any, will be there. And sometimes they will not be there has you would expect.
Take for example: Greece. it might seem that there are only two players: a Greek player, and a European player. from this viewpoint, the Greeks want out, and the Europeans want in, that is of the euro. so the Europeans punish the Greeks to bend them to their will. but there is not to but three players in the game: the rich Greek people, the poor Greek people, and the Europeans. the Europeans and the poor Greek people both want for Greece to go on the drachma. but the rich Greek people, who control all that is worth anything, want to stay so they can move out of the country whenever is worth moving. they are the people who want to stay.
With this in mind, it then becomes very simple to see why the condition of the country is what it is. The rich Greek people are hiding money, leaving exposed public goods to be taken; because after all they do not care about public goods, only private ones. The poor Greek people, who have some allotment of public goods, even if it is just to get some to lose money, do not have this advantage. That is why the rich Greekocrockes do not care about public goods, and are happy to waste them in order to keep the private goods which they can shuffle back and forward.
But more than that, there are other rich elites wanting to stay on the euro, whatever the cost is to their poor brethren. Such as Ireland. All of these elites want to stay on the euro to have transportability of their money, while the poor do not really care. at least not enough to take the whipping from the bloodless Eurocrats.
So next time you see the results of what is going on in Europe, realize that the parliament is controlled by Rich people, and the poor are increasingly out on the street. and the rich Eurocrats do not have a clue as to how to play the game. what they should do is go after the rich of the country, not the poor. For example taxing money going out of the country.
But that would leave the Eurocrats in the position of caring for ordinary people. which they would not rather do. I will leave as an exercise how many people in Britain actually elect the government.
(Props to When Will Greek Looting and Austerity End? | Ian Welsh )
And that remark gave everyone who thought they had a clue, a real point to start at the end and work backwards. It was just the smart people who knew what was going on, it was the people who listened very closely, which is a larger number than before. You just have to know what the signs are, and use something called "Game Theory".
Game theory was invented by Morgenstern and John von Neumann, with von Neumann one of the finest mathematicians in the 20th century. the game that they started was littered with the best of minds in the field, many of them great mathematicians themselves. and three of the brightest are Gödel, Turing, and Nash. what the three of them did was essentially invent the idea of informational space, and, though separately, introduced the idea that there was something like a current running through this. Later on engineers realized that it was not just theoretical, it was also practical.
And one of the greatest ideas came from Nash, And that was, do not go forward, go backwards. This way you will know what each participant once with their time, and how best to conserve it. In this way you could show by game theory what they would do, and what they would do by min maxing their position, whatever their opponents did.
This was not just theoretical, Nash showed it by using poker as an example, but it is mean use is with real people and the choices that they make. Once you look backwards, you will see that the logical choices, if any, will be there. And sometimes they will not be there has you would expect.
Take for example: Greece. it might seem that there are only two players: a Greek player, and a European player. from this viewpoint, the Greeks want out, and the Europeans want in, that is of the euro. so the Europeans punish the Greeks to bend them to their will. but there is not to but three players in the game: the rich Greek people, the poor Greek people, and the Europeans. the Europeans and the poor Greek people both want for Greece to go on the drachma. but the rich Greek people, who control all that is worth anything, want to stay so they can move out of the country whenever is worth moving. they are the people who want to stay.
With this in mind, it then becomes very simple to see why the condition of the country is what it is. The rich Greek people are hiding money, leaving exposed public goods to be taken; because after all they do not care about public goods, only private ones. The poor Greek people, who have some allotment of public goods, even if it is just to get some to lose money, do not have this advantage. That is why the rich Greekocrockes do not care about public goods, and are happy to waste them in order to keep the private goods which they can shuffle back and forward.
But more than that, there are other rich elites wanting to stay on the euro, whatever the cost is to their poor brethren. Such as Ireland. All of these elites want to stay on the euro to have transportability of their money, while the poor do not really care. at least not enough to take the whipping from the bloodless Eurocrats.
So next time you see the results of what is going on in Europe, realize that the parliament is controlled by Rich people, and the poor are increasingly out on the street. and the rich Eurocrats do not have a clue as to how to play the game. what they should do is go after the rich of the country, not the poor. For example taxing money going out of the country.
But that would leave the Eurocrats in the position of caring for ordinary people. which they would not rather do. I will leave as an exercise how many people in Britain actually elect the government.
(Props to When Will Greek Looting and Austerity End? | Ian Welsh )
